Midseason Recap & Winter Cup Predictions Presented by Flip Fest
At the halfway point of the season, a few things are clear: Stanford is as dominant as we thought they would be, Navy is having a remarkable season and freshmen are making a big splash. Here are CGA’s five takeaways after the first half of the year.
1. Stanford Is As Good As Everyone Thought
The big question at the start of the season was whether Stanford would be as dominant as most assumed they’d be after last season. The answer to that question at the halfway point is a resounding yes. The Cardinal have trounced every opponent they’ve faced so far, and though the weather robbed us of what would have been an intense matchup at Windy City, it seems there is little doubt Stanford will end up with their second-consecutive NCAA title come April. Further proof? Look at the data compiled by Minnesota alum Yaroslav Owens-Pochinka.
Stanford has an immense D-score advantage over every other squad. The team best positioned to challenge the Cardinal is Michigan, but the Wolverines’ best D-score total this season is more than eight points behind Stanford’s. That said, if you take a closer look, Stanford is somewhat vulnerable when it comes to execution score: their best E-score this season trails Michigan’s by about 4.5 points. So, as of now, Stanford is the juggernaut we thought they’d be. But the Cardinal should also be on watch for the upstart Wolverines.
2. Navy Is The Best They’ve Been In Years
Four years ago, Kip Simons took over at Navy. Since then, he has brought them from the No. 13 team in the country up to a 10th-place finish at NCAA Championships last year. Heading into the Winter Cup break in 2020, the Midshipmen are boasting an impressive No. 7 ranking in the country by scoring average. Simons’ team has put together four-straight 400+ performances as they tout a season-high score of 407.8.
Admittedly, Navy has faced only one top 10 team so far this season — week one against Penn State at the West Point Open where they had their worst performance thus far. They will be put to the test right after the break as they travel to face No. 5 Ohio State and No. 11 Cal. We will get to see this impressive team against some pressure and see how they fare. The rest is yet to be seen, but Navy could be well on their way to their best finish in years.
3. Michigan Takes B1G Lead
Another takeaway from the D- and E-score comparison chart is Michigan’s advantage over the six other Big Ten teams. Their D-score lead isn’t insurmountable (Illinois and Penn State are within 2.5 points when it comes to top difficulty competed so far), but Michigan’s E-score lead is pretty stark. Their best E-score of the season is more than two points better than that of Nebraska, the closest Big Ten team to Michigan in the E-score category.
What does this mean? It means if every Big Ten team were to compete the most difficult sets they’ve done this season with the best execution they’ve displayed, Michigan would come out on top.
You could qualify Michigan’s seeming dominance by saying other teams haven’t unleashed their full potential while Michigan has. But that just seems unlikely. Teams are usually wary of upgrading too dramatically in the latter half of the season given they can’t drop a score. Although it’s true that Michigan’s hit percentage could be significantly higher than other teams’ (which would explain their E-score advantage), it would be a mistake to fault them for this or act as if it’s a disadvantage. The fact is the Wolverines are winning for a reason, and if they continue to lead in the D- and E-score categories by as much as they currently do, it would take mistakes for them to lose the Big Ten title in April.
4. Freshmen Are Big Contributors
Many people thought this was going to be a very strong freshman class, but few figured that they would be making this big of an impact. The obvious standout has been Brandon Briones who is currently ranked No. 1 in the country in the all-around with an 84.05 NQA. This is over a tenth higher than his teammate Brody Malone, who blew the NCAA away to become the 2019 National Champion last April. Joining Briones in the top-10 is Paul Juda (No. 6 — 80.55), who just helped his Michigan team to a big win over Oklahoma last week, and Briones’ Stanford teammate, Riley Loos (No. 7 — 80.433).
Connor McCool has stood out for Illinois on floor where he is currently No. 5 with a 14.417 NQA. Penn State had a Big Ten Freshman of the Week Performance out of Robbie Shamp. Ohio State boasts an impressive duo of Justin Ah Chow and Kazuki Hayashi. Minnesota is getting great production out of Crew Bold and Donte McKinney. This list is far from exhaustive, but it illustrates the strength of this 2020 freshman class. It will be interesting to see just how impactful they will be when championship season rolls around.
5. The Big Ten Regular Season Title Race Has A Flaw
It’s a tragedy that two Big Ten teams can face off in a competition that, because of the existence of the Big Ten regular season title, seems somehow less important than another. Here’s what needs to happen: if there is to be a Big Ten regular season championship, then every matchup between Big Ten teams should matter.
The Big Ten regular season race has had the unfortunate — and surely unintended — consequence of devaluing meets that are not “Big Ten matchups,” even when two or more Big Ten teams are participating. Take the Iowa v. Minnesota meet on Feb. 1. The Gophers rested some of their guys because they knew the meet wouldn’t count against them in the Big Ten regular season race. That seems totally counter to the mission of the regular season championship format, which was started last season to increase the importance of every regular season meet. Could Iowa still have won? Of course. But allowing teams to treat a regular season competition like a preseason football game isn’t good for anyone.
Those who understand the need to grow our sport’s fan base must recognize how absurd the fact that a matchup between border state rivals doesn’t actually impact either team’s quest for a conference title must sound to the uninitiated. If our scoring system is impenetrable, then what is this?
Winter Cup Predictions
2020 Winter Cup Predictions via CGA Experts Logan Bradley, Ben Cooperman and Alex Wittenberg
